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Nigeria: Elections Briefing Paper
AFRICA ACTION
Africa Policy E-Journal
April 11, 2003 (030411)
Nigeria: Elections Briefing Paper
(Reposted from sources cited below)
This posting contains excerpts from a newly released briefing paper
by the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD). The CDD, with
offices in Nigeria and in London, is an independent research,
information and training institution dedicated to policy-oriented
scholarship on questions of democratic development and peace
building in the West African sub-region. An independent CDD team
will be monitoring the elections in six selected states across
Nigeria where the organization has engaged in monitoring for the
last four years.
For the full text of the CDD briefing and to contact CDD for
media interviews, see the website and contact information below.
See also a new report from Human Rights Watch released
yesterday on the threat of violence to the elections in
several Nigerian states.
http://www.hrw.org/press/2003/04/nigeria041003.htm and
http://www.hrw.org/reports/2003/nigeria0403
For additional background on Nigeria see the Great Decisions
article published earlier this year at:
http://www.africaaction.org/featdocs/nig2003.htm
as well as earlier E-Journal postings at
http://www.africafocus.org/docs03ej/nig0304a.php>
http://www.africafocus.org/docs03ej/nig0302a.php>
and
http://www.africafocus.org/docs03ej/nig0302a.php>
+++++++++++++++++end summary/introduction+++++++++++++++++++++++
BRIEFING ON NIGERIA'S 2003 ELECTIONS
[Excerpts only: the full paper is available on the CDD website at:
http://www.cdd.org.uk/Briefing_Nig_Elections.htm]
Centre for Democracy and Development
International Office / Bureau Internationale
3B Leroy House, 436 Essex Road, London N1 3QP, UK
Tel: +44 (0)20 7359 7775; Fax: +44 (0)20 7359 2221
E-mail: cdd@cdd.org.uk;
http://www.cdd.org.uk
This briefing paper was prepared by Olly Owen with Morten Hagen,
Otive Igbuzor and Amina Salihu.
For further information on the Nigeria elections 2003 please
contact us as listed below:
CDD in London: Dapo Oyewole, doyewole@cdd.org.uk, Tel: +44 (0)20
7359 7775 Morten Hagen, mhagen@cdd.org.uk, mobile: +44 (0)7905 139
415 Olly Owen, oowen@cdd.org.uk
CDD in Lagos: Otive Igbuzor igbuzor@cddnig.org, Tel: +234 (0)1 493
4420 / 473 0705 mobile: +234 (0)802 303 9797
CDD in Abuja: Amina Salihu, asalihu@cddnig.org, Tel: +234 (0)9
4130729 mobile: +234 (0)80 330 56245 Michael Utsaha,
michaelutsaha@yahoo.com
Contents [of full briefing; only some excerpted below]
- Why are Nigeria's 2003 elections so important?
- The history of democratic elections in Nigeria
- Politics, wealth and power
- Political parties in Nigeria
- Local rivalries and political violence
- Party Politics and violence
- Nigeria's contested nationhood
- The Federal system: constitutionalism and alternatives
- Separatists and ethnic nationalism
- Militias and vigilantes
- The politics of religion & Shari'a law
- Ethnic-regional tensions and power-sharing
- The army in politics
- The fight for democracy in Nigeria
- The Oputa Panel
- Human rights in democratic Nigeria
- The Judiciary
- The role of the media
- Rich and poor
- The environment
- Oil and ecosystems in the Niger Delta
- Health and human development
- Current domestic issues in Nigeria
- Current issues in Nigeria's foreign affairs
- Previous Outbreaks of violence and conflict
- List of Political Parties
- Resources for further research
Why are Nigeria's 2003 elections so important?
With a population of over 120 million and many expatriate
communities across the globe, the largest economy in West Africa,
and great political importance in the region, the African
continent, and the global stage, events which affect the stability
and future of Nigeria affect the entire world. Nigeria is also of
global strategic importance as a major oil producer, supplying
around 10% of the US market. In the recent past, Nigeria has been
in the news mainly in the light of several sad incidents of ethnic
and communal violence, and this has led to a perception of
heightened tensions as we approach the 2003 elections. Elections,
interrupted as they have been by periods of military dictatorship,
have always contained potential for civil unrest, and so the good
conduct of the forthcoming polls is a matter not only of
international concern but also of symbolic importance for the
citizens of Nigeria. ...
Nigeria's domestic political scene has relatively recently shifted
from authoritarian military regimes to a democratically elected
one. However, the so-called 'democratic dividend' has hardly
materialised in terms of any improvement in ordinary people's
living conditions, and the incumbent regime, although
democratically elected, has lost a substantial degree of trust.
The history of democratic elections in Nigeria
The most free, fair and peacefully conducted elections in Nigeria
were those in 1959, 1979, 1993 and 1999, and the most chaotic,
violent and disputed were those in 1964 and 1983. The reason for
this is that the first three were 'transition' elections, in which
the regimes in power and responsible for organising the elections
had to hand over power to a democratic civilian regime. ... In
contrast, the other elections can be viewed as potential
'consolidation' elections, in which an elected civilian government
was responsible for organizing elections to hand over power to a
successor regime. The failure of these elections to consolidate
democracy (each led in fact to disruption and eventually a return
to military rule) was due to the reluctance of the incumbent regime
to allow a level playing field, in case they lost their grip on
power. The current PDP regime has devolved conduct of the 2003
elections to the Independent National Electoral Commission,
although there is considerable debate as to whether this body is
vulnerable to political pressure. It can be seen, then, that a
second consecutive peaceful and successful election would be an
important symbolic milestone in Nigeria's history.
Political parties in Nigeria
In order to stop the Federal government being dominated by one
particular ethno-regional group to the detriment of others (which
was one of the fears behind the coup which led eventually to the
Biafra war of 1966), the constitutions of Nigeria right from the
second republic stipulates that to win power a party must achieve
a spread of majority votes across the different regions of the
country. But this in turn leads to massive political parties which
are less ideological policy-driven groups, and more coalitions of
players perhaps with one particular ethno-regional clique at the
core deemed likely to be able to deliver the vote in their home
areas, either through their established public standing, or their
ability to plentifully fund their campaigning. ...
Local rivalries and political violence
The process of political competition is replicated in miniature in
all 36 states of the Nigerian federation, in battles over
governorships and state assemblies, and even more locally, in
competition over who dominates the councils administering the 774
Local Government Areas. ... Much of the vicious localised violence
of the recent past, for instance the vicious small-scale war in
Benue state in 2001 and in Warri, Delta State more recently have
been largely driven by competition between ethnically-based
factions over domination of Local Government Councils.
Nigeria's contested nationhood
Throughout its history, the Nigerian nation has been in a tension
between the centralising tendencies of the 'state class'; those
politicians, military men, bureaucrats and businesspeople who
benefit from being players on a national stage, and on the other
hand regional, ethnic and faith communities who feel stifled within
the state and wish to keep as much autonomy as possible. Today this
debate exists not just between Nigerian nationalists and ethnic
nationalists, but also between the Federal administration and State
governments. One of the most hotly contested issues is that of
resource control, and the correct proportion of oil revenues to
assign to the producing states, as against the Federal government.
Most recently the Legislature and Supreme Court have debated
whether coastal states should share in offshore oil revenues, and
to what extent. Control over state agencies and budget allocation
are also bones of contention.
The Federal system: constitutionalism and alternatives
As the military was departing the political scene in 1999, it
hurriedly put together the 1999 Constitution. As at the time
candidates were contesting for elective positions, no one had seen
a copy of the constitution. The Constitution was promulgated into
law a few days before the new civilian regime was sworn in. The
1999 Constitution has been criticized by both government officials
and civil society alike for being an imposition by the military.
Furthermore, the constitution is a bundle of contradictions and it
is very unitary despite consensus among Nigerians that the best
form of government for the country is a federal system. Civil
society organizations led by the Citizens Forum for Constitutional
Reform (CFCR) have been advocating for a process led and
participatory approach to Constitution Making in Nigeria. Although
the present regime initiated a process to review the constitution,
the popular participation was not as the people had anticipated. In
addition, the process has not been concluded. The reform of the
Constitution will therefore be a major election issue.
The politics of religion & Shari'a law
The first term of the Obasanjo administration has been marred by
the outbreak of periods of rioting and civic strife over religious
issues, which have been of major concern in the country and
internationally. Some estimate a death toll as high as 10,000 in
such incidents over the past four years though this is unconfirmed.
Violence between Muslim and Christian communities is nothing new in
Nigeria, although there is also a less reported story of long and
peaceful coexistence. Due to the repressive nature of military
regimes, such religious tensions have tended to boil over when
Nigeria is in a period of democracy, with freedom of speech opening
the way to public debate over contentious issues. ...
The institutionalisation of Shari'a law in 11 of Nigeria's northern
states, begun in Zamfara by Governor Sani, might be seen as a
cynical ploy to seem to be representing the interests of Muslims,
with the ulterior motive of bolstering individuals' local
power-bases in the face of a loss of power at a national level. But
this would not be the full story; the reasons why Shari'a has been
so popular in the areas where it has been introduced include the
devout beliefs of many citizens, their perception of God's law as
a way to rectify the morally corrupt state of the nation, and the
embracing of a hard-line system of corporal and capital punishment
in reaction to the rocketing crime rate. ...
And there are two important things to bear in mind: Religion can be
more the excuse than the root cause for violence, as the Miss World
Riots in Kaduna illustrate. Violence against Christians was also
violence directed at outsiders, including southerners, and members
of minority groups from central Nigeria, who are perceived as
increasingly encroaching upon economic life and local government
structures in the important Northern city. ...
The other important thing to bear in mind is the very large
contribution made by leaders of both religions to resolving such
tragedies: Imams and priests are engaged in interfaith dialogues,
and as leaders of civil society, in cooling tempers on both sides
in many cities.
Ethnic-regional tensions and power-sharing
Since even before independence, Nigerian politics have been
characterized by the jostling of three large and two small
ethnic-regional blocs. Though often over-simplified, it is true to
say that the political elite of the Northern region is based around
a Muslim, Hausa-Fulani identity built on established pre-colonial
Emirate states, and that through the large numbers of its members
in the Armed forces, this establishment has often dominated
political life. The Yoruba Western region, while home to many
businesspeople, professionals and civil servants, is religiously
mixed and at times deeply divided between its various cities, in
the past the capitals of warring states. And the Igbo-populated
Eastern region has thriving commercial hubs but has often expressed
a feeling of exclusion from power at the central level, currently
expressed by the gathering campaign for an Igbo president.
Between these three politicised ethno-regional identities sit
sizeable numbers of smaller groups of mixed Muslim, Christian and
Animist heritage in the central 'Middle-Belt', and numbers of small
kingdoms and communities in the Niger Delta. Middle-Belt cities
such as Jos have been the site of ethnic-religious riots in the
recent past, which should not be seen solely as the manifestation
of the North-South divide, but also of the area's own specific
problems. The communities of the Niger delta have grown more
assertive in demands for an equal share of national wealth, given
their position on top of the oil deposits which supply it. To
manage tensions, ethnic quotas have been introduced governing
recruitment and promotion in state service.
In electoral politics, the desire for access to national power and
wealth by the elites of each bloc, and the fear of rule by a
national government dominated by another group, has led to a kind
of unofficial 'consociationalism', whereby a candidate from one
major group will choose a running-mate from another, and a party
chairman from the third, with minorities playing for a stake as a
kind of floating constituency. Thus the PDP is led by Obasanjo from
the South-West with Atiku Abubakar, a Northerner, as running-mate.
The ANPP has chosen former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari as
presidential candidate representing the conservative Northern
interest, coupled with Chuba Okadigbo from the South-East to allay
that region's fears of exclusion.
The fight for democracy in Nigeria
The extensive Afrobarometer survey of public attitudes across
Nigeria shows the ups and downs of last few years reflected in
public attitudes. The great majority of those questioned still
valued the democratic system in itself, and preferred it to any
other form of government, but at the same time expressed
reservations about its current performance. But the right to live
under this system has been hard-won. The military governments of
the 1990s were opposed by a broad front of civil-society groups,
media organs, students and activists who worked both within and
outside Nigeria to open up public space for opposition and debate.
The true state of affairs became apparent when Babangida annulled
the results of the 12 June 1993 election due to the surprise win of
M.K.O. Abiola, who was later jailed and subsequently died in
detention. Under the authoritarian Abacha government activists
became more vocal as their work became more dangerous, and some
paid with their lives. The tradition of civil society activism, as
the 'eternal vigilance', which safeguards civic freedoms, has
become more, not less, necessary in the return to democratic rule.
Human rights lawyers, environmental groups, the media, political
activists and religious leaders and others continue to hold the
government and politicians to account for their past and present
failings.
Human Rights and the Oputa Panel
In June 1999, soon after assuming office, President Obasanjo
established the Human Rights Violations Investigations Commission,
otherwise known as the 'Oputa Panel'. It had the major task of
re-examining past cases of human rights violations, with a view to
possibly effecting reconciliation between victims and perpetrators.
Never in the history of Nigeria has any public commission or
inquiry received the kind of enthusiasm that greeted the
establishment of this Commission. Many Nigerians hoped then, and
still hope now, that the exercise will bring succour to survivors
and engender a broad process of healing and reconciliation, which
in any event is vital to the health of the Country. ...
On 28 May 2002, the full seven-volume report was submitted to the
President. A committee headed by Elizabeth Pam, one of the
commissioners, was set up to implement recommendations. More than
10 months afterwards, the report is yet to be officially released,
even though the President had given his word that the Oputa report
would not go the way of past reports read by an inner circle,
analysed for political gains or damage and then discarded.
Perceptions are that the need of the incumbent regime to negotiate
its way to a second term with the very same persons indicted in the
report, may mean the suspension of the Oputa report until a time
when it may be utilized as a suitable political pawn.
Human rights in democratic Nigeria
... In July 2002 for three weeks, women from Ugborodo (also known
as Escravos) community in Nigeria's Niger delta, occupied Chevron
Texaco's gas tank farm in Escravos. The women were demanding
rehabilitation and reclamation of their community's land,
employment for their children and welfare schemes for the aged. The
protesters called off the siege on Thursday 18th July after some
promises were extracted from the Chevron/Texaco management. This
led to a ripple effect, which saw women from an Ijaw community in
Ondo state, and Abiteye flow station in Delta state, also occupying
flow stations. In Warri, joint action by Itsekiri, Ijaw and Ilaje
women ended with police brutally assaulting the women. Other
instances of police and Military brutality were the incidents of
Odi and Choba in 1999, and Zaki-Biam in Benue state in 2002, where
many women were raped, killed and traumatized. ...
Rich and poor
The annual per capita average GNP of $260 masks a huge gap between
rural peasants and urban underclasses on one hand, and the wealthy
internationally-oriented elite on the other. It is also less by
$120 a year than Nigeria's resource-poor neighbour Benin. Although
Nigeria has thriving small businessmen and women, economic power
and opportunity is overwhelmingly in the hands of those with access
to state revenues and influence, including serving and retired
civil servants and ex-military personnel. Avenues taken to wealth
by such persons are sometimes within the law, and sometimes not, a
fact reflected in Transparency International's rating of Nigeria as
one of the planet's six most corrupt countries. ...
The centrality of oil to the whole nation is reflected in the
long-running historical debates over formulas for revenue
allocation between the Federal Government, the oil-producing areas,
and Nigeria's other states. The latest chapter in the slow
resolution of this debate has been over whether coastal states
should be given a share of offshore discoveries, in which at
present the Federal Government is the winner. ...
+++++++++++++++++++++Document Profile+++++++++++++++++++++
Date distributed (ymd): 030411
Region: West Africa
Issue Areas: +political/rights+ +economy/development
The Africa Action E-Journal is a free information service
provided by Africa Action, including both original
commentary and reposted documents. Africa Action provides this
information and analysis in order to promote U.S. and
international policies toward Africa that advance economic,
political and social justice and the full spectrum of
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