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Nigeria: Can Elections be Fair?
AfricaFocus Bulletin
Mar 18, 2011 (110318)
(Reposted from sources cited below)
Editor's Note
"The April 2011 general elections - if credible and peaceful -
would reverse the degeneration of the franchise since Nigeria
returned to civilian rule in 1999, yield more representative and
legitimate institutions and restore faith in a democratic
trajectory. Anything similar to the 2007 sham, however, could
deepen the vulnerability of West Africa's largest country to
conflict." - International Crisis Group
Earlier this week the first round of Presidential elections in
Benin was completed peacefully (http://allafrica.com/stories/201103150228.html), with results
indicating the need for a runoff. Niger completed its second round,
also peacefully, with opposition leader Mahamadou Issoufou winning
with 58% of the vote (http://allafrica.com/view/group/main/main/id/00012559.html).
[For more news of recent elections in Niger and Benin, visit
http://allafrica.com/niger and http://allafrica.com/benin
For a more extensive listing of African elections this year, see
the advanced search at http://www.electionguide.org / direct URL:
http://tinyurl.com/659elto]
Nigeria's elections, coming next month, are much more problematic,
and will have wide impact not only for Nigeria but also for the
region. Both Nigerian and international commentators have praised
the leadership of election commissioner Attahiru Jega, a
distinguished educator and pro-democracy advocate. And there will
be unprecedented levels of monitoring by Nigerian civil society
activists, as access to mobile phones and to the internet have both
grown significantly since the last election. But the prospects for
fraud and for violence are still substantial.
This AfricaFocus Bulletin contains excerpts from a report by the
International Crisis Group and an interview about the elections
with Nnimmo Bassey, from the latest issue of Pambazuka News.
Additional recent reports and commentaries about Nigeria's
elections include:
Amnesty International, Rise in Pre-Election Violence, March 18,
2011
http://tinyurl.com/5u6u8ch / http://www.amnesty.org
Statement by Nigerian civil society groups, including the Civil
Society Legislative Advocacy Centre, March 17, 2011
http://www.pambazuka.org/en/category/comment/71807
Statement by Human Rights Watch and Nigerian Bar Association, March
13, 2011
http://allafrica.com/stories/201103141347.html http://www.hrw.org
United States Institute of Peace, Nigeria: Looking Toward 2011,
December 2010
http://www.usip.org/publications/nigeria-looking-toward-2011
Nigerian Sites Monitoring the Elections
Independent National Electoral Commission
http://www.inecnigeria.org/
Nigeria Election Coalition
http://nigeriaelections.org
Enough is Enough
http://www.eienigeria.org
Reclaim Naija
http://reclaimnaija.net
Additional blogs and news sites include:
Akin
http://akin.blog-city.com/
Carl LeVan
http://carllevan.com/development4security/
New Nigerian Politics
http://newnigerianpolitics.com/category/elections-2011/
Sahara Reporters
http://www.saharareporters.com/
For previous AfricaFocus Bulletins on Nigeria, see
http://www.africafocus.org/country/nigeria.php
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Nigeria's Elections: Reversing the Degeneration?
Africa Briefing N 79 24 Feb 2011
Abuja/Dakar/Brussels, 24 February 2011
International Crisis Group
http://www.crisisweb.org
Overview
The April 2011 general elections - if credible and peaceful - would
reverse the degeneration of the franchise since Nigeria returned to
civilian rule in 1999, yield more representative and legitimate
institutions and restore faith in a democratic trajectory. Anything
similar to the 2007 sham, however, could deepen the vulnerability
of West Africa's largest country to conflict, further alienate
citizens from the political elite and reinforce violent groups'
narratives of bad governance and exclusion. Flawed polls,
especially if politicians stoke ethnic or religious divides, may
ignite already straining fault lines, as losers protest results.
Despite encouraging electoral preparations, serious obstacles
remain. Many politicians still seem determined to use violence,
bribery or rigging to win the spoils of office. In the remaining
weeks, national institutions, led by the Independent National
Election Commission (INEC), should redouble efforts to secure the
poll's integrity, tackle impunity for electoral crimes, increase
transparency and bolster safeguards, including by publicising
results polling station by polling station and rejecting bogus
returns.
With Laurent Gbagbo's attempt to defy democracy in C“te d'Ivoire
casting a shadow throughout the continent, the elections will
resonate, for good or ill, well beyond national borders. Nigeria's
prestige and capacity to contribute to international peace and
stability are at stake. The reputation of President Goodluck
Jonathan, the generally favoured incumbent, is at stake too. He
took a tough stance for respecting election results in C“te
d'Ivoire, and his promise to respect rules for these polls
contrasts starkly with former President Olusegun Obasanjo's "do or
die" language in 2007. Jonathan's victory in an orderly (at least
in Abuja) People's Democratic Party (PDP) presidential primary and
subsequent wooing of northern powerbrokers seem thus far to have
averted dangerous north-south splits within the ruling party. He
appointed a respected academic and civil society activist,
Professor Attahiru Jega, to chair the INEC and seems inclined to
respect its autonomy, including by providing timely funding for
elections. Jega's leadership offers some protection against the
wholesale manipulation of results that blighted previous polls.
But huge challenges remain. Jega carries the expectations of the
nation, but - as he emphasises - is no magician. He assumed office
only in June 2010 and has juggled much needed reforms against the
imperative of actually holding elections in 2011. He inherited an
organisation complicit in the 2007 fraud, exposed to manipulation
outside the capital and over which the new Electoral Act denies him
full control. To his - and the nation's - credit, a gamble to
conduct a risky voter registration exercise seems to have paid off,
but its shaky start was a reminder of challenges, even in simply
delivering materials around the vast country in a timely manner.
Underlying causes of electoral flaws, however, run deeper than
election administration. Stakes are high: the state is the
principle means of generating wealth; vast oil revenues are
accessed through public office. Extreme poverty makes voters
vulnerable to bribes and intimidation. The election takes place
against an upsurge in violence, including attacks in Borno,
communal violence in Jos and explosions in Abuja and elsewhere.
Politicians and their sponsors habitually exploit violent groups
and social divisions to win elections, so many Nigerians perceive
that upsurge as linked to April's polls. A number of incumbent
governors face bruising contests, and the threat of bloodshed hangs
over many states. Security is crucial to electoral integrity, but
security forces have traditionally done little to prevent rigging
or violence and have often been bought by politicians and
complicit. Lower-level courts are often corrupt, impunity is
insidious and the rule of law at best weak. No one has been
convicted of an electoral offence since independence.
Elections, therefore, traditionally offer Nigerian politicians a
choice: respect the rules and risk losing to an opponent who does
not; or avoid the political wilderness by rigging or violence,
knowing that to do so is easy, and you are unlikely to be punished.
Shifting these incentives is essential to holding better elections.
Tackling underlying issues - unchecked executives, frail
institutions, rampant impunity and inequitable distribution of
power and resources - requires reforms of a scope not feasible by
April. But by bolstering safeguards, rigorous planning, ensuring
better security, acting against bogus results and beginning to
convict electoral offenders, INEC and other institutions can at
least make cheating less attractive.
...
The bar for these elections seems set at "better than 2007". That
may be realistic, given Jega's late arrival, the INEC's internal
constraints, the stakes of office, entrenched patterns of rigging
and violence and fragile rule of law. But such a modest standard -
well below Nigeria's own regional and international commitments for
democratic elections - should not disguise that the choices of
elites, not an innate Nigerian resistance to democracy, drive
shoddy polls. If the country's politicians want to meet their
citizens' increasingly desperate aspirations for a free and fair
vote, nothing stops them from doing so.
II. The risks of Violence
The 2011 general elections are a crucial test for Nigeria.1
Democratic government has been uninterrupted for more than a
decade, but the quality of elections since the return to civilian
rule in 1999, of which these are the fourth, has declined
continually. The 1999 polls that swept General Olusegun Obasanjo
and the PDP party to power were flawed but generally accepted by
Nigerians glad to see the back of a repressive military
dictatorship. Over subsequent years, Obasanjo and the ruling party
- an alliance of oligarchs with close links to the military -
consolidated their grip on power. In 2003 his mandate was renewed
in a vote that was decried by observers as heavily rigged.
With his attempts to change the constitution to allow a third term
thwarted by civil society and legislators, including those of his
own party, Obasanjo in 2007 threw his weight and the state
machinery behind an anointed successor, Umara Musa Yar'Adua, former
governor of Katsina state. Yar'Adua won handily, but the elections,
despite transferring power from one civilian to another for the
first time since independence, were universally condemned as a
farce. Yar'Adua, in ill-health even before assuming the presidency,
was soon forced to seek care abroad, leading to extended absences.
After a medical crisis in November 2009 left him incapacitated, the
Senate transferred powers to Vice President Goodluck Jonathan, from
the Niger Delta state of Bayelsa, who like Yar'Adua was a relative
unknown. Jonathan was sworn in formally after Yar'Adua's death in
May 2010. While seeking to gain control over the PDP, Jonathan has
at the same time made repeated promises domestically and abroad to
allow credible elections.
Despite swift economic growth and visible development in some
states, notably under a reform-minded governor in Lagos, the years
since the 2007 polls have increased the country's vulnerability to
conflict. Oil revenues drive staggering corruption and politics
based exclusively on patron-client relations. Those outside
patronage networks are bereft of opportunities - a dangerous
pattern in a country of tremendous ethnic diversity. The oil
revenues are considerable - nearly $74 billion in 2008 alone - but
92 per cent of Nigerians live on less than $2 a day and 70 per cent
on less than $1.6 Social indicators, especially in the north, are
among the world's worst. In some regions, the state offers no
water, electricity or education. Unemployment, especially among
youths, is widespread. A recent survey claimed that 55 per cent of
Nigerians thought "things were heading in the wrong direction".
Attacks by radical groups like Boko Haram in the far north have
surged. The middle belt, especially Jos and Plateau state, suffers
intensified conflict that is rooted in competition for land or
other resources but takes an ethnic or religious dimension. The
ceasefire and amnesty in the Niger Delta have, since July 2009,
quieted violence but not addressed root causes or led to wide
demobilisation and still threaten to unravel. Nigeria's conflicts
are varied, complex and frequently aggravated by politicians for
their own ends. But a common thread of fury at exclusion and
abusive governance runs through the narratives of violent groups.
Elections are intrinsic to the conflict dynamics. The patronage
politics, grotesque inequality and denial of basic public goods
that drive conflict both subvert elections and are, in turn,
exacerbated by their rigging. High-stakes electoral contests over
power and spoils trigger horrific bloodshed, again mostly
orchestrated by politicians. Observers reported hundreds of
incidents of election-related violence, including at least 105
deaths, in 2003 and more than 300 deaths in 2007. Recent months
have seen the assassination of at least one candidate, fatal
intra-party attacks during primaries and scores of other deaths
that appear election related. On 11 February, Chairman Jega warned:
"We are already seeing the ugly head of electoral violence around
the country, not only in areas that are experiencing communal and
political violence unrelated to elections, like Jos Plateau, Niger
Delta and Borno States, but in other relatively quiet parts of the
country".
The Nigerian youth is no fool
Pambazuka News
Khadija Sharife
2011-03-16, Issue 521
http://pambazuka.org/en/category/features/71734
Nigerian environmental and human rights activist Nnimmo Bassey
talks to The Africa Report's Khadija Sharife about Nigeria's
upcoming elections, the prospects for political change and whether
Nigeria will go the way of North Africa.
* Nnimmo Bassey is a poet, the executive director of Environmental
Rights Action, the chair of Friends of the Earth International and
was named a Time magazine 'Hero of the Environment' 2009.
KHADIJA SHARIFE: Will the uprising in Egypt and Tunisia spark a
similar response in Nigeria?
NNIMMO BASSEY: Nigerians at the moment are demonstrating their
desire for change and for the respect of their right to choose who
leads them through the eagerness they are showing in the ongoing
voter registration exercise in the country. People have had to go
to the registration centres as early as 4am to be sure they get
attended to early enough in the day. If the political elite scuttle
the next election coming up in April through rigging, violence and
ballot box snatching or stuffing, I believe what we appear to be
cushioned from by the desert buffer will happen here. The energy of
people power released in Tunisia and Egypt will find a place here.
There is no doubt about it.
KHADIJA SHARIFE: Is there a similarity between the repression of
the North African states, where regimes are interlocked with
foreign governments, and Nigeria's historical and present reality?
NNIMMO BASSEY: In the case of the North African states, the US
interest is greased by the need for unrestricted access to crude
oil and gas. Their security interests are locked into this. It is
clear that the US diplomacy in Nigeria is also hinged on open and
unhindered flows of crude oil and gas.
When it comes to crude, there is no sync between diplomacy and
democracy. It appears dictatorships and repression serve the
interest of the volatile industry and US leaders. This explains why
we do not hear any denunciations of the rampant impunity and human
rights abuses recorded since Nigeria returned to civilian rule in
1999.
Whole communities have been attacked by state military forces and
thousands have been killed, hundreds of women raped and properties
destroyed. I name a few here: Odi, Odioma (under Olusegun
Obasanjo's presidency), Gbaramatu (under late President Umaru
Yar'Adua) and recently Ayakoromo (under President Goodluck
Jonathan).
KHADIJA SHARIFE: Are ballots perceived by Nigeria's youth as a
means of change or is there a general feeling that the current rot
in the political system cannot be upended by voting?
NNIMMO BASSEY: Nigerians are incurable optimists and believe the
ballot is the way to effect change. This will clearly not go on
forever. As it is said, if you fool a person once you are a fool,
but if you fool that person twice then for sure that person is a
fool. I don't think the Nigerian youth is a fool.
KHADIJA SHARIFE: What are your thoughts on President Goodluck
Jonathan?
NNIMMO BASSEY: If he wins the election he will have a moral duty to
take up the environmental challenge not only of the Niger Delta,
where he comes from, but the entire devastated Nigerian
environment. He will have to tackle the rising violence in the land
and also tackle corruption and sectarian politics. He will have no
excuses. Nigerians will not be patient with him.
KHADIJA SHARIFE: What are some of the primary faultlines of the
Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)? What are your
thoughts on Attahiru Jega?
Jega has impeccable credentials as a trustworthy person and has a
history as a human rights crusader. I cannot personally think of a
better person for the job. The system is the challenge. Can he
succeed despite the system? That is his test. That is our test as
Nigerians. The INEC has a good man as its chair, but having just a
good head is not enough. It is not at all clear that the present
structures and state of readiness will secure a hitch-free election
in April.
Rigging is a big element of corruption and is never limited to any
region. It has always been more brazen in the more remote areas
where communication is limited and election materials may not be
recalled on time. We are also waiting to see if the computerised
system can detect multiple registrations. Some people have already
been arrested for being in possession of multiple cards. If the
machines could not detect such duplications, despite the fact that
such persons were finger printed, then we have reason to worry
about multiple voting.
AfricaFocus Bulletin is an independent electronic publication
providing reposted commentary and analysis on African issues, with
a particular focus on U.S. and international policies. AfricaFocus
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