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Note: This document is from the archive of the Africa Policy E-Journal, published
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Africa: Policy Outlook 1996
Any links to other sites in this file from 1996 are not clickable,
given the difficulty in maintaining up-to-date links in old files.
However, we hope they may still provide leads for your research.
Africa: Policy Outlook 1996
Date Distributed (ymd): 960110
Africa Policy Information Center
Policy Outlook 1996
The political climate in Washington will likely remain
extremely difficult for Africa advocacy this year. Funding for
aid, peacekeeping and other U.S. international obligations is
sure to come under renewed attack in the second year of the
104th Congress. Many congressional advocates for African
issues, Republican and Democratic, are scheduled to retire at
the end of the 1996 session, notably Senators Nancy Kassebaum
(R-Kan.) and Paul Simon (D-Ill.). And it is very unlikely that
international issues, much less Africa, will figure
prominently in the 1996 election campaigns.
In general, therefore--short of a catastophe on the scale of
the Rwandan genocide in 1994 or Somalia's disintegration in
1992-1993--it will not be easy to attract high-level attention
to African issues, even when they do not involve significant
funding commitments. The one African issue that seems likely
to stay in the spotlight is the campaign for sanctions to
promote democracy in Nigeria--if, that is, the late-1995
momentum of grassroots involvement and media coverage is
maintained.
Nevertheless, the prospects are good for maintaining some
level of constructive U.S. involvement in strengthening
ongoing ties with South Africa. Washington will also likely
play a role in selected peacekeeping operations such as Angola
and Liberia, in promoting debt relief for African countries,
and in a number of aid initiatives. The extent of active U.S.
support for pro-democracy and human rights efforts in Nigeria
and other countries, going beyond business-as-usual diplomacy,
will depend above all on the level of public pressure and
press attention.
Economies Grow, But So Does Debt Burden
Economic growth rates for Africa in 1995 and 1996 were
projected to be in the 3% range, considerably higher than the
1.5% average of the early 1990s. But this still falls short of
the rate necessary to keep pace with population growth, much
less provide a basis for sustainable growth. Reductions in
flows of external assistance, together with a still-mounting
debt burden, pose additional obstacles. However, rising
capital flows into South Africa and expectations of increased
growth there and in several other countries somewhat offset
these general trends.
A late 1995 report by the United Nations Conference on Trade
and Development highlighted prospects for foreign investment
in Africa, which it termed potentially the most profitable
world region. But long-term economic difficulties and new
burdens imposed by economic austerity programs mean most of
the continent's people face a grim year of renewed hardships.
Proposals for further action on debt reduction, including the
more than $35 billion Africa owes to international financial
institutions, will be under consideration in 1996. Congress
may also try to shape an agenda for improving Africa's trade
prospects. But both initiatives will have to overcome apathy
as well as substantive opposition to new proposals.
The prospects for economic advance also depend fundamentally
on resolving and averting violent conflicts and on building
and strengthening democratic institutions. In terms of
security, the most intractable and devastating conflict in
1996, as in 1995, is likely to be the war in southern Sudan.
But implementation of peace settlements in Angola and Liberia
was still problematic as the year began, and escalation of
mass violence in Rwanda, Burundi or both was an ever-present
danger. The struggle for democracy against the military regime
in Nigeria is likely to be the most prominent African issue in
1996. Meanwhile, human rights activists and pro-democracy
groups also face serious repression in a number of other
countries.
Countries and Issues
Following are brief highlights of specific areas and issues on
which U.S. involvement may make a difference this year.
Conflict (Sudan and other countries): War continues in
southern Sudan, where hundreds of thousands of civilians are
caught in conflict between the brutally repressive Sudanese
government and the Sudan People's Liberation Army, which has
gained military ground in recent months. The international
community is engaged in relief efforts, but efforts at
mediation have stalled. Regime opponents in the north as well
as the south have called for increased international pressure
against the Khartoum regime.
While on a smaller scale than in Sudan, ongoing or sporadic
violent conflict or insecurity characterizes a number of other
countries, including Algeria, Sierra Leone, Zaire, Somalia,
the Tuareg area in northern Niger, and KwaZulu/Natal province
in South Africa.
Peace agreements (Angola and Liberia): Observers are hopeful
that implementation of the peace agreements in these two
countries will move ahead in 1996, but further delays are
almost certain and renewed conflict a constant threat. In
Angola, the demobilization of Unita troops called for under
the November 1994 accords has barely begun, and government
forces are highly suspicious that the delay will be used to
rebuild Unita military capacity. And in Liberia it is still
doubtful whether the resources and political will are
sufficient for the agreed disarmament of combatants.
Prevention of wider conflict (Rwanda and Burundi): The
situation in these two countries continues tense and
potentially explosive. Some 1.8 million Rwandan refugees
remain outside Rwanda, mainly in Zaire, where officials of the
former Rwandan government responsible for the 1994 genocide
still hold sway over their army and most civilians. Delays in
prosecutions for the genocide, and threats that the refugees
might return or be returned home forcibly, are among factors
making a new escalation of violence possible. In Burundi,
ethnic violence will likely continue--and possibily escalate--
despite international mediators' efforts to maintain a
delicate coalition between the predominantly Tutsi military
and an elected multiethnic government.
Democratization (Nigeria and other countries): The campaign
for democracy in Nigeria gained new international prominence
in late 1995 after the Nigerian military regime executed
enviromental activist Ken Saro-Wiwa and eight of his
colleagues. Nigeria was suspended from the Commonwealth, and
support for oil and other sanctions came from a wide range of
groups around the world. Bills were introduced in the U.S.
Congress which fell short of oil sanctions, but did include
bans on new investment and a freeze on personal assets of top
Nigerian officials. Governments were slow to move on more
substantive measures, which were vigorously opposed by oil
companies. The sanctions campaign will likely continue to grow
in 1996, but it remains to be seen whether it can overcome
excuses for inaction by governments.
Meanwhile, in many other countries, notably Zaire and Kenya,
the pro-democracy momentum of the early 1990s has been
difficult to maintain in the face of both repression and other
ploys by incumbent regimes. In some countries that have
recently held elections (for example, Ethiopia, Cote
d'Ivoire), serious questions have been raised about the
fairness of those polls. International donors, including the
United States, have shown far more consistency in pressing for
free-market economic policies than they have in demanding
respect for human rights and political participation by
diverse social groups.
South Africa and the continent: In 1996 South Africa is likely
to confront increasing disagreements among labor, business and
different political forces over how to craft social and
economic policies that address the legacy of apartheid
inequality. The Truth Commission, headed by Archbishop Desmond
Tutu, will begin its controversial work of investigating human
rights abuses in the apartheid era. Conflict between the
African National Congress and the Inkatha Freedom Party may
escalate in KwaZulu-Natal, particularly around the local
government elections now scheduled for May.
Meanwhile, South Africa will be forced to deal with the
challenge of identifying appropriate roles for itself on wider
African issues, such as Nigeria. In doing so it must avoid the
twin dangers of narrow isolationism and condescending
paternalism toward other African states. Like the U.S. outside
the continent, South Africa neither can nor should attempt to
resolve every crisis. Its stance on key issues, regardless,
will be closely watched by African countries and outside
powers alike.
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This material is produced and distributed by the Africa
Policy Information Center (APIC). APIC's primary objective is
to widen the policy debate in the United States around African
issues and the U.S. role in Africa, by concentrating on
providing accessible policy-relevant information and analysis
usable by a wide range of groups and individuals. APIC is
affiliated with the Washington Office on Africa (WOA), a
not-for-profit church, trade union and civil rights group
supported organization that works with Congress on
Africa-related legislation.
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