AFRICA POLICY OUTLOOK
1997
First the good news: For the decade beginning in 1996, the
annual economic growth rate for Sub-Saharan Africa is
projected at 3.8%, double that for the decade that ended in
1995. This welcome increase reflects improved commodity
prices, the return to peace in several countries on the
continent, and increased investment and productivity in many.
Statistics for 1995 show that it was the first year
of positive per capita income growth since 1989, and 1996 is
expected to turn out even better.
This new aggregate growth refutes the stereotype of a
consistently gloomy outlook for the continent. There are,
however, many sobering qualifiers. The World Bank estimates
that growth rates less than 6% will not significantly reduce
poverty in most countries. While 12 African countries
achieved this target in 1995, 41 did not. Food intake per
person in Sub-Saharan Africa was estimated last year at just
87% of daily requirements.
Africa's share of foreign direct investment continued to fall,
from 10% in 1987-1991 to 3.6% in 1995. Meanwhile, global
concessional aid flows, on which Africa is particularly
dependent, continued their decline. While 1996 saw the
approval of a new scheme for greater debt reduction for
heavily indebted countries, it was unclear how many countries
would actually benefit from it in 1997.
In addition, as the World Bank now concedes--echoing the
longtime view of critics--"economic growth is necessary but
not sufficient for reducing poverty." Even in countries
praised for their economic reforms and growth rates, most
people continue to struggle for survival under precarious
conditions. Funds for investment in infrastructure and human
development, essential for long-term advance, are squeezed by
"market-oriented" budget constraints throughout the continent.
Peace and Security Issues
Countries cannot progress economically in the absence of basic
physical security. In many countries, security is threatened
by open conflict, physical displacement or arbitrary abuses by
repressive regimes.
The multifaceted crisis in the Great Lakes region and Zaire,
which made headlines in 1996, remains deadly. Open war also
continues in the Sudan, and peace settlements in both Liberia
and Angola could easily give way to renewed violence. In
Algeria there is no end in sight to the violent conflict
pitting extremist Islamic rebels against repressive government
forces, in which both sides have targeted civilians and the
lives of journalists are particularly at risk.
In cases such as the Great Lakes, the scale of crisis simply
overwhelms local capacity to respond. There is a growing
consensus, contrary to the Organization of African Unity's
general assumption in past decades, that internal conflicts
are not just the concern of one country. Neighboring
countries and indeed the continent at large are victimized by
spillover effects. Genocidal violence is in theory--if not
yet in practice--the concern of the entire human community.
Yet consensus on the need to "do something" is unlikely to
lead easily to agreement on who should do what. The crises
mentioned above, and perhaps new ones, are certain to confront
Africa advocates this year with hard questions.
In African countries not suffering open warfare--i.e. the vast
majority--civil society continues to expand its role in
demanding respect for human rights, democratic governance, and
attention to a wide range of specific issues. But advocates
typically work in a climate of domestic repression and
international indifference. The most prominent case in 1997,
as in 1996, is likely to be Nigeria, where the military regime
shows no signs of responding to demands for democracy and
respect for human rights.
In South Africa, the new democratic system is well
established. The extension of the Truth Commission's amnesty
deadline into this year makes it likely that revelations about
past abuses will continue. The country faces formidable
problems, however, as it seeks to reconcile demands for
economic growth with the need for equity in a society still
fundamentally defined by the class and race hierarchies of the
apartheid era. South Africa has yet to define a clear foreign
policy that includes constructive participation in African
issues as well as relationships with global economic powers.
Issues This Year
In Washington the political climate will likely remain
extremely difficult for advocacy on Africa. The reelected
Republican majority in both houses of Congress will continue
to press for cuts in international affairs budgets, ranging
from development assistance to U.N. funding, the World Bank's
International Development Association, peacekeeping
operations, and other international agencies. The Clinton
Administration, moreover, is likely to be inconsistent in its
support for such budget commitments, despite its success in
ousting U.N. Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali.
In Congress the retirement of Senators Nancy Kassebaum
(R-Kan.) and Paul Simon (D-Ill.) removes two of Africa's most
prominent allies on the legislative front. While there are
sympathetic lawmakers in both the Senate and House, it will be
an uphill battle to build even a modest core of members ready
to speak out regularly on Africa issues.
Apart from regular budgetary issues, there will be discussion
of the African Growth and Opportunity Act introduced by
Representatives Crane, Rangel and McDermott last year. The
bill is designed to promote US trade and investment in Africa,
but there is debate about whether it takes a balanced approach
to development and reciprocal economic ties or fosters a
one-sided stress on market-led growth and free trade.
In short, African issues are unlikely to receive much more
attention from Washington in 1997 than in 1996. In many
cases, however, relatively small shifts in US policy can have
substantial impact on African or multilateral initiatives.
The following is a brief checklist of some specific areas and
issues on which US involvement may make a difference this
year.
Conflict (Great Lakes and the Horn): With the return of the
majority of Rwandan refugees from Zaire and Tanzania, the
interlocked crises in this region are for the moment focused
primarily within rather than between borders. Rwanda faces
the massive challenge of integrating the refugees and
establishing functional legal procedures for coping with the
aftermath of genocide. The future of Zaire and the refugees
remaining there is unpredictable, except for the certainty
that the conflict is not over. Burundi's minority military
regime is still under sanctions from regional countries, and
massacres of civilians continue.
War rages on in southern Sudan, and the repressive Sudanese
government is under increasing challenge in the north as well.
There is, nevertheless, little immediate prospect of decisive
military shifts or revival of stalled mediation efforts. The
conflict has spawned an ongoing humanitarian crisis, and
Sudan's neighbors could yet be drawn into the war.
Peace agreements (Liberia and Angola): The peace process in
Liberia is formally on track again after its violent collapse
in April 1996. But key steps such as disarmament of faction
forces are not yet implemented, and a new collapse is easily
possible in 1997. In Angola the United Nations peacekeeping
force is scheduled to withdraw by mid-year. On paper the
demobilization of Unita forces is complete, but observers warn
that as many as 20,000 Unita troops are still operational.
Insecurity is pervasive in the countryside, and there is a
real threat of renewed open warfare.
Democratization (Nigeria and other countries): The internal
and international campaign for democracy in Nigeria will
continue, given the failure of the Abacha regime to offer more
than token promises of change. Neither Western nor African
countries are likely soon to take additional steps to increase
pressure on the military regime, however, unless there is a
dramatically visible escalation of the crisis. Pro-democracy
efforts in most other countries are even less likely to
attract major international attention and support.
Landmines: The Clinton Administration will have to decide
soon whether to join Canada and other countries in pressing
rapidly for a total ban on anti-personnel landmines or
continue deferring to the Pentagon's opposition to quick
action on the issue.
International institutions: Like his predecessor, incoming
U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan is a highly skilled diplomat
from the African continent. But the spectacle of the
transition, engineered unilaterally by the United States, was
not encouraging. Substantive issues were absent from the
debate, save for the code-word "reform," generally understood
as a euphemism for downsizing. This will be a critical year
for US relations with the U.N. and other multilateral
institutions. Unless the pattern of the last few years
changes, the negative consequences for Africa will be
substantial.
This material is produced and distributed by the Africa Policy
Information Center (APIC), the educational affiliate of the
Washington Office on Africa. APIC's primary objective is to
widen the policy debate in the United States around African
issues and the US role in Africa, by providing accessible
policy-relevant information and analysis usable by a wide
range of groups and individuals.
