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Africa: Policy Outlook 1998
Africa: Policy Outlook 1998
Date distributed (ymd): 980128
APIC Document
+++++++++++++++++++++Document Profile+++++++++++++++++++++
Region: Continent-Wide
Issue Areas: +political/rights+ +economy/development+
+security/peace+ +US policy focus+
Summary Contents:
This posting contains a summary overview of expected Africa policy issues
for the year, with a focus on U.S. policy. It also contains a request to
readers to suggest priority reading for President Clinton on his expected
trip to Africa.
+++++++++++++++++end profile++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Africa Policy Outlook 1998
As Africa moves into 1998, observers on the continent as well as outside
are divided on whether to emphasize new hopes or the persistence of old
problems. There is evidence to support each view. The continent's economic
growth is stronger than at any time since the early 1970s. But Africa still
accounts for a small fraction of world trade and investment, and macroeconomic
growth is accompanied by stagnant or declining living conditions for the
majority of Africans.
Last year saw the removal of one of the continent's longest-surviving
dictators, Mobutu Sese Seko of Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of Congo).
But the prospects for the new Congo government are uncertain. Conflict
continues in eastern Congo and in the adjacent Great Lakes countries of
Rwanda and Burundi, and in many other countries as well. The demand for
democracy continues to grow, with an increasing number of groups engaged
in different aspects of that struggle. But momentum is hobbled by ambiguous
results, disillusionment, and quarrels among elites--a pattern that is
unlikely to change decisively in 1998.
Neither "Afro-pessimism" nor "Afro-optimism" captures
what is really a very mixed picture. The situation is different from country
to country, sector to sector, observer to observer. Yet there can be no
doubt that Africa is taking its own initiatives to address the problems
of the "second independence" era. These range from grassroots
efforts at survival to regional initiatives for cooperation among both
governments and institutions of civil society.
Economic Progress and Setbacks
Africa's growth rate in 1996 exceeded 5%. Although the rate was expected
to drop back to 3.4% for 1997, some estimates project up to 4.7% growth
for 1998. These results are higher than the 2% growth of the early 1990s.
However, they are still insufficient to reduce the highest average poverty
rates in the world. Food security in several African regions in 1998 is
expected to be threatened further by El Nino's effects on the weather.
A recent report from the International Labor Organization estimates
that in Sub-Saharan Africa, the proportion of the population living in
poverty will increase to over 50% by the year 2000. Unemployment in Africa's
large cities is more than 20% and is expected to approach 30% by the end
of the decade. Critics of the structural adjustment packages of the last
decade--and even many analysts within the international financial institutions--stress
that African countries are unlikely to break out of this trap without massive
investment in education, health and public infrastructure. Doing so will
require mobilization of domestic resources and private foreign investment.
It will also require steps to reverse the downward trend in international
aid and to address the continent's crushing debt burden.
The World Bank/International Monetary Fund initiative for highly indebted
poor countries resulted in approval of substantial debt relief packages
for Uganda and Burkina Faso in 1997, with Mozambique and Cote d'Ivoire
in line for 1998. But the size and pace of the relief still falls short
of what is needed. The continent's annual debt service payments are predicted
to rise from $30 billion in 1996 to $33 billion in 1998, a figure equivalent
to 24% of total exports. African and international NGOs and churches will
continue to work for greater debt reductions in 1998.
Ongoing Conflicts
Fighting continues in Sudan, Algeria, and the Great Lakes region, with
little prospect of resolution during the year. These wars have caused casualties
in large numbers and have had crippling economic effects. More limited
conflicts afflict other countries, including Uganda and Senegal. Peace
agreements being implemented in Angola, Sierra Leone, and the Central African
Republic are fragile and incomplete. The military victory of Sassou-Nguesso
in the civil war in Congo (Brazzaville) last year brought a new government
to power. Sassou-Nguesso has promised a transition to civilian rule, but
so far the stability of his government is based on military victory, not
legitimacy.
In Burundi, neither sanctions by regional states nor attempts at mediation
have diminished the conflict between the Tutsi-dominated military regime
and Hutu rebel forces. Regional observers also see increasing signs of
coordination among extremist Hutu forces and their allies in attacks in
Burundi, Rwanda and eastern Congo. These forces were responsible for the
genocide against Tutsis and moderate Hutus in Rwanda in 1994 and they still
openly advocate the extermination of the remaining Tutsis. Their resurgence
has also led to increasing abuses against civilians in the counterinsurgency
campaigns by Rwanda and Congo (Kinshasa).
In Sudan, opponents of the fundamentalist military regime have seen
their military prospects improve. But there is little hope of peace any
time soon. In Algeria the death toll from massacres continues to mount.
Extremist guerrillas, who previously targeted mainly government supporters,
educated women and intellectuals, are increasingly going after ordinary
villagers as well. The military regime's primary response is repression,
which is often indiscriminate and which has been unsuccessful in curbing
the violence. The international community is growing more concerned but
the response in 1998 is likely be limited to calls for investigations.
Among campaigners for democracy on the continent, Nigeria will remain
the major focus this year. The military regime of General Sani Abacha has
promised to return the country to civilian rule by October, but has stepped
up repressive measures against its opponents. Almost no one except the
regime's own supporters gives credence to Abacha's promise, but there is
debate about what measures can be taken to put pressure on the regime.
In various other African countries, there is a persistent gap between
governments' public commitment to democracy and a reality which falls far
short of that ideal. To cite only a few examples, ruling governments in
Kenya, Zambia and Ethiopia can all claim mandates from recent elections,
in 1997, 1996 and 1995 respectively, as can Cote d'Ivoire from 1995/96.
But in each case critics cite major flaws in the electoral process and
repression of the opposition.
In "no-party" Uganda and one-party Eritrea, critics deplore
the absence of competitive national elections. But supporters of those
governments point to development initiatives under way and to opportunities
for popular participation and debate on public issues that exceed those
in many countries that have held elections.
There is particular uncertainty about the extent to which criticism
should be leveled against the new governments of Rwanda and Congo (Kinshasa).
Some see Kagame in Rwanda and Kabila in Congo (Kinshasa) as part of a self-reliant
new generation of African leaders who can move their countries forward,
despite their emphasis on stability rather than democratic rights. Some
contend that under the circumstances, democracy is a luxury that must be
put off for later. At the other extreme, some critics say these new leaders
are just as bad as their predecessors (the genocidal former Rwandan government
and the Mobutu dictatorship). The South African government, among others,
has emphasized the potential for cooperation with the new governments,
and the fact that they do face real security threats. But many observers
stress the danger of ignoring human rights abuses and delays in democratization.
It will continue to be difficult for nongovernmental organizations as well
as governments to shape policies that promote constructive engagement and
reconstruction without providing support for authoritarian government actions.
U.S. Policy Questions
Attention to African issues by U.S. officials, never great, may be on
a modest upswing. First Lady Hillary Clinton visited Africa in March 1997,
and Secretary of State Madeleine Albright went in December; both President
Clinton and Vice-President Gore are expected to make Africa trips this
year. Secretary Albright has named the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act
as one of the Administration's top four foreign policy issues in 1998.
In the larger picture, though, Africa is still very low on the agenda in
U.S. foreign policy circles. In its Winter 1997 issue, for example, the
influential Foreign Policy journal graded the President with three
analysts from Europe, two from Asia, and one each from Latin America, the
Middle East and Russia but none from Africa. And Africa rated less than
a sentence in the President's State of the Union address on January 27.
Among the key unanswered questions about U.S. Africa policy in 1998:
- Will the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, and similar initiatives
to promote U.S. trade and investment, be balanced by attention to African
development priorities that include equity and sustainability?
- Will verbal support for African self-reliance and reconstruction be
matched by a willingness to invest increased U.S. resources through multilateral
institutions, African governments and civil society, as well as the private
sector?
- What will the U.S. government do to support the struggle for democracy
in Nigeria and around the continent, while avoiding the "one-size-fits-all"
approach on the one hand and opportunistic excuses for human rights violations
on the other?
Suggest a Book about Africa for President Clinton (and other US officials)
Suppose you were asked to suggest a book for President Clinton's airplane
reading on his announced trip to South Africa and several other African
countries in March (see http://www.africanews.org/usafrica
for the most recent news on the trip). What would you suggest?
Let us know at books@africapolicy.org,
and we'll put your suggestion, along with your one- or two-sentence comment
on the book, on our web site (http://www.africapolicy.org).
We'll also pass the accumulated suggestions on to the White House before
the trip. Of course, we can't guarantee the President will take the suggestion!
But we think your considered recommendations will also be useful for other
officials and for visitors to our web site, where it will be possible to
order those among the suggested books that are in stock at the on-line
bookstore amazon.com.
Please suggest books in print that are available to the US public --
or if you do suggest an out-of-print classic or another hard-to-find book,
please give details on how someone can get a copy. Only one suggestion
per person, please.
APIC's Senior Research Fellow William Minter starts out by suggesting
a new book out just this month:
Karl Maier, Into the House of the Ancestors: Inside the New Africa
(New York: John Wiley & Sons, January 1998). 278 pages.
ISBN:
047113547X
(if you order from Amazon.com through the
ISBN link above,
you get a 30% discount and APIC gets a 15% referral fee from Amazon).
Exceptional among books by Western journalists, this readable report
finds inspiration in and presents the voices of ordinary Africans who are
drawing on their heritage and building the future around the continent.
Without avoiding the horrors and problems--from genocide in Rwanda to child
soldiers to AIDS--Maier stresses the initiative and determination of rarely
acknowledged individuals finding the way ahead one step at a time.
How to do it:
To make processing your suggestion easier,
just put this form in an e-mail to books@africapolicy.org
(cut and paste the form into a new message) and fill in the blanks.
Your answers can be more than one line, but please keep within
the brackets and don't delete them.
- <title of book>
[ ]
- <author(s) of book>
[ ]
- <place of publication>
[ ]
- <publisher>
[ ]
- <year of publication>
[ ]
- <mailing address and other contact information for publisher>
[ ]
- <URL of publishers' web site, if available>
[ ]
- <your one- or two-sentence comment on the book>
[ ]
- <your name>
[ ]
- <your title and institutional affiliation, or other identification>
[ ]
- <your city and country of residence>
[ ]
This material is produced and distributed by the Africa Policy Information
Center (APIC), the educational affiliate of the Washington Office on Africa.
APIC's primary objective is to widen the policy debate in the United States
around African issues and the U.S. role in Africa, by providing accessible
policy-relevant information and analysis usable by a wide range of groups
and individuals.
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